Tuesday 28 July 2015

Capital Control: RM 4

First of all, let us see what is capital control.

Capital control as defined by wikipedia is as follow:

Capital controls are residency-based measures such as transaction taxes, other limits, or outright prohibitions that a nation's government can use to regulate flows from capital markets into and out of the country's capital account. These measures may be economy-wide, sector-specific (usually the financial sector), or industry specific (for example, “strategic” industries). They may apply to all flows, or may differentiate by type or duration of the flow (debt, equity, direct investment; short-term vs. medium- and long-term).
Types of capital control include exchange controls that prevent or limit the buying and selling of a national currency at the market rate, caps on the allowed volume for the international sale or purchase of various financial assets, transaction taxes such as the proposed Tobin tax, minimum stay requirements, requirements for mandatory approval, or even limits on the amount of money a prilvate citizen is allowed to remove from the country. There have been several shifts of opinion on whether capital controls are beneficial and in what circumstances they should be used.
Capital controls were an integral part of the Bretton Woods system which emerged after World War II and lasted until the early 1970s. This period was the first time capital controls had been endorsed by mainstream economics. In the 1970s free market economists became increasingly successful in persuading their colleagues that capital controls were in the main harmful. The US, other western governments, and the big multilateral financial institutions (the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank) began to take an increasingly critical view of capital controls and persuaded many countries to abandon them to facilitate financial globalization.[1]
The Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s, the East Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, the Russian ruble crisis of 1998-99, and the global financial crisis of 2008, however, highlighted the risks associated with the volatility of capital flows, and led many countries—even those with relatively open capital accounts—to make use of capital controls alongside macroeconomic and prudential policies as means to damp the effects of volatile flows on their economies.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, as capital inflows surged to emerging market economies, a group of economists at the IMF outlined the elements of a policy toolkit to manage the macroeconomic and financial-stability risks associated with capital flow volatility. The proposed toolkit allowed a role for capital controls.[2] The study, as well as a successor study focusing on financial-stability concerns stemming from capital flow volatility,[3] while not representing an IMF official view, were nevertheless influential in generating debate among policy makers and the international community, and ultimately in bringing about a shift in the institutional position of the IMF.[4][5][6] With the increased use of capital controls in recent years, the IMF has moved to destigmatize the use of capital controls alongside macroeconomic and prudential policies to deal with capital flow volatility. More widespread use of capital controls, however, raises a host of multilateral coordination issues, as enunciated for example by the G-20, echoing the concerns voiced by John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White more than six decades ago.

So, what's the advantage of capital control:

a) avoid excessive flight of capital
b) maintain investor confident.
c) encourage foreign investor to invest
d) allow business to project and planned their next course of action
e) sustain the economy of a country.

Here's why Malaysia had to do capital control at RM 4.

a) excessive flight of foreign capital especially USD.
b) BNM foreign reserve is depleting excessively
c) import is getting expensive
d) business is unable to service their loan
e) Investor and business confident gone as they cannot bear the depreciating ringgit.

Advantage of capital control to investor:

a) High Foreign debt company will prosper - AAX, Lion Ind.
b) Export oriented (buy in MYR, sell in USD) - wood, furniture, tech, textiles (sustained)
c) Import oriented (buy in USD, sell in MYR) - eggs, flour, cars (improved margin)

Disadvantage

a) Initial flight of capital
b) Distrust of foreign investor.

Malaysia was the first country to come out from the ASEAN financial crisis due to capital control in 1998 see www.jomoks.org/research/pdf/MY_K_controls

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Saturday 25 July 2015

SPECULATIVE PLAY: OMESTI flying dagger with inverted W.


OMESTI (9008) feeling a bit tired after successfully climbed above 0.700. While resting at support price of  0.68 (red circle). I strongly believe it would climb further and break the strong resistant at 0.720 with an inverted W. You are welcome to join me at the extended bull run tomorrow.

自从OMESTI (9008) 成功攀爬到了0.700 以上。它显得有点疲累需要休息以便继续攀爬至更高的价位所以它暂时停留在0.68(红色圈里)。它很有潜能,能够爬上0.720或更高的价位。从明天开始欢迎您与我一同见证它。

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

SPECULATIVE PLAY: IFCAMSC: (BUY HIGHER SELLING HIGHER)


You can monitor IFCAMSC (0023) closely for  Malaysia's technology stock bull theme. If IFCAMSC break the resistant at 1.18 with high volume,  it will definitely follow the bull trend!!!. Let`s see what will happen tomorrow. But bear in mind the support is at 1.12.

由于大马科技股开始了一阵牛凤,所以您可以开始留意IFCAMSC (0023) 。如果它能带量攻破1.18这个价位,这是否显示它也跟着起跑?等明天开始大家一起来见证。但是提醒您它的支撑价在1.12。

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Bright: The flying turtle

Bright makes plastic and aluminium packaging products that they exported overseas.  Their strength comes from  selling aluminium foils to cigaretts companies in US, UK and Russia. All their sales is dominated in US dollar.

Let us see that their profit margin is 40% with the Russian contract of US 10 million. Profit come to US 4 million (MYR 15 million) annually.

So, their EPS with these contract alone is = 15m/82m = 18.3 sen.
FV = 18.3 sen x 10 = Rm 1.83
So, MOP = RM 1.83 - RM 0.5 = RM 1.33 (266 %).

For the warrant, FV = Rm 1.83 - 0.82 = Rm 1.01
So, MOP = Rm 1,01 - Rm 0.16 =  Rm 0.85 (531 %).

However, I have not factor in the appreciating USD:MYR ratio and other local and overseas export as well as the drop in crude oil and metals prices worldwide.


BRIGHT (9938) currently trying to break the strong resistant at 0.515 candle sticks are moving on the up trend bollinger band witdth (red circle). Meanwhile, MACD is showing up trend sign. It is capable to continue climbing the mountain slope?

BRIGHT (9938) 近来已攻破一道很强的防线在0.515。它的价位一直都在努力的往上爬(红色圈里)。MACD出现了上涨的信息。它又是否还有能力往上继续爬呢?

Bon Voyage! Bright

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Thursday 23 July 2015

E&O: The giant have awaken.

E&O: A company that needs no introduction in Penang. If you happen to visit Penang try to stay in E&O Hotel you will feel the stylish, quality and excellence building with colonial heritage. Now, I know you are excited about the excellence of E&O hospitality.

Come, let us deep deeper into this giant.

This giant have awaken under Dato' Thiam. as he is planning more share buy back.

If you like ewein, you should like E&O more, cos they are both under the same industry - yes, you are right property developer in Penang.

Now, lets us see the hard facts for E&O.

E&O biodata:

1) EPS = 16 sen,
2) PE = 20, as it is a good developer.

So, Fair value is = 0.16 x 20 = RM 3.2.
Current price = Rm 1.85.
So margin of profit = RM 1.35 (73%)

For the warrant,
current price = RM 0.32,
the fair price = RM 3.2 - RM 2.6 = RM 0.60,
MOP = 0.28/0.32 (87.5%).

Penang will be a state that mirrored Hong Kong soon, so the land in the island is going to be depleted soon. If you like Ecoworld, E&O will be a better choice as it is in the island, while Ecoworld land is in the mainland. Try asking the Penangist where they prefer to stay, island or mainland.

However, I have not factored in the potential of 12 Billion  reclamiation work on STP2 and other property project in greater KL.

If this and other landbank revaluation will to be added up the PE can go to maybe 40 or even 50 (current PE of Ewein).

As the warrant will only expire in 2019, it will be a good proxy for Penang to reach vision 2020, a develop nation that mimic Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore with the current exemplary management by the local government.
E&O recently broke 1.80 resistant but MACD is waiting for volume to confirm a strong bullish sign. This frenzy bull will reach E&O soon! Let's wait and see.


Bon Voyage E&O to uncharted water.

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Black Berry(附加华语翻译)

23 July 2015, The Edge was published



Current support level for Black Berry (BB) was $7.65 while the resistant was $8.01. Is there any big foot collecting at this level? You may jump to follow to collect it?

Black Berry (BB) 目前的支撑价为$7.65 但阻力价为$8.01. 当中是否有大脚在收票呢?您也一同跳进去一起捞票?

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Wednesday 22 July 2015

Speculative play: Teo Seng (加入了华语翻译)



TEOSENG already recovered from the lost land? Is it true? On 13/7/15 it is able to break the first resistant at 1.44. However, it failed to break the second resistant at 1.63 and retracement was formed due to profit taking for hari raya? After raya mood was gone, TEOSENG go up with its own effort and continue its journey to break the last resistant at 1.69. Hopefully, TEOSENG is doing well and hit above 1.76 and it should form a new bull run. Not trust? Let's see how it doing.

TEOSENG已经收复失地了吗?13/7/15那天已经捣破了第一个阻力价RM1.44但并未冲破第二到阻墙价RM1.63。由于raya假期的关系,人人都套利去庆祝了。raya气氛已过,TEOSENG又再次卷土从来继续它的旅程。最后的关卡会在RM1.69。希望TEOSENG能做得更好直奔RM1.76以及引来一只雄牛。不相信?敬请期待。

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.