Tuesday 28 July 2015

Capital Control: RM 4

First of all, let us see what is capital control.

Capital control as defined by wikipedia is as follow:

Capital controls are residency-based measures such as transaction taxes, other limits, or outright prohibitions that a nation's government can use to regulate flows from capital markets into and out of the country's capital account. These measures may be economy-wide, sector-specific (usually the financial sector), or industry specific (for example, “strategic” industries). They may apply to all flows, or may differentiate by type or duration of the flow (debt, equity, direct investment; short-term vs. medium- and long-term).
Types of capital control include exchange controls that prevent or limit the buying and selling of a national currency at the market rate, caps on the allowed volume for the international sale or purchase of various financial assets, transaction taxes such as the proposed Tobin tax, minimum stay requirements, requirements for mandatory approval, or even limits on the amount of money a prilvate citizen is allowed to remove from the country. There have been several shifts of opinion on whether capital controls are beneficial and in what circumstances they should be used.
Capital controls were an integral part of the Bretton Woods system which emerged after World War II and lasted until the early 1970s. This period was the first time capital controls had been endorsed by mainstream economics. In the 1970s free market economists became increasingly successful in persuading their colleagues that capital controls were in the main harmful. The US, other western governments, and the big multilateral financial institutions (the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank) began to take an increasingly critical view of capital controls and persuaded many countries to abandon them to facilitate financial globalization.[1]
The Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s, the East Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, the Russian ruble crisis of 1998-99, and the global financial crisis of 2008, however, highlighted the risks associated with the volatility of capital flows, and led many countries—even those with relatively open capital accounts—to make use of capital controls alongside macroeconomic and prudential policies as means to damp the effects of volatile flows on their economies.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, as capital inflows surged to emerging market economies, a group of economists at the IMF outlined the elements of a policy toolkit to manage the macroeconomic and financial-stability risks associated with capital flow volatility. The proposed toolkit allowed a role for capital controls.[2] The study, as well as a successor study focusing on financial-stability concerns stemming from capital flow volatility,[3] while not representing an IMF official view, were nevertheless influential in generating debate among policy makers and the international community, and ultimately in bringing about a shift in the institutional position of the IMF.[4][5][6] With the increased use of capital controls in recent years, the IMF has moved to destigmatize the use of capital controls alongside macroeconomic and prudential policies to deal with capital flow volatility. More widespread use of capital controls, however, raises a host of multilateral coordination issues, as enunciated for example by the G-20, echoing the concerns voiced by John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White more than six decades ago.

So, what's the advantage of capital control:

a) avoid excessive flight of capital
b) maintain investor confident.
c) encourage foreign investor to invest
d) allow business to project and planned their next course of action
e) sustain the economy of a country.

Here's why Malaysia had to do capital control at RM 4.

a) excessive flight of foreign capital especially USD.
b) BNM foreign reserve is depleting excessively
c) import is getting expensive
d) business is unable to service their loan
e) Investor and business confident gone as they cannot bear the depreciating ringgit.

Advantage of capital control to investor:

a) High Foreign debt company will prosper - AAX, Lion Ind.
b) Export oriented (buy in MYR, sell in USD) - wood, furniture, tech, textiles (sustained)
c) Import oriented (buy in USD, sell in MYR) - eggs, flour, cars (improved margin)

Disadvantage

a) Initial flight of capital
b) Distrust of foreign investor.

Malaysia was the first country to come out from the ASEAN financial crisis due to capital control in 1998 see www.jomoks.org/research/pdf/MY_K_controls

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Saturday 25 July 2015

SPECULATIVE PLAY: OMESTI flying dagger with inverted W.


OMESTI (9008) feeling a bit tired after successfully climbed above 0.700. While resting at support price of  0.68 (red circle). I strongly believe it would climb further and break the strong resistant at 0.720 with an inverted W. You are welcome to join me at the extended bull run tomorrow.

自从OMESTI (9008) 成功攀爬到了0.700 以上。它显得有点疲累需要休息以便继续攀爬至更高的价位所以它暂时停留在0.68(红色圈里)。它很有潜能,能够爬上0.720或更高的价位。从明天开始欢迎您与我一同见证它。

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

SPECULATIVE PLAY: IFCAMSC: (BUY HIGHER SELLING HIGHER)


You can monitor IFCAMSC (0023) closely for  Malaysia's technology stock bull theme. If IFCAMSC break the resistant at 1.18 with high volume,  it will definitely follow the bull trend!!!. Let`s see what will happen tomorrow. But bear in mind the support is at 1.12.

由于大马科技股开始了一阵牛凤,所以您可以开始留意IFCAMSC (0023) 。如果它能带量攻破1.18这个价位,这是否显示它也跟着起跑?等明天开始大家一起来见证。但是提醒您它的支撑价在1.12。

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Bright: The flying turtle

Bright makes plastic and aluminium packaging products that they exported overseas.  Their strength comes from  selling aluminium foils to cigaretts companies in US, UK and Russia. All their sales is dominated in US dollar.

Let us see that their profit margin is 40% with the Russian contract of US 10 million. Profit come to US 4 million (MYR 15 million) annually.

So, their EPS with these contract alone is = 15m/82m = 18.3 sen.
FV = 18.3 sen x 10 = Rm 1.83
So, MOP = RM 1.83 - RM 0.5 = RM 1.33 (266 %).

For the warrant, FV = Rm 1.83 - 0.82 = Rm 1.01
So, MOP = Rm 1,01 - Rm 0.16 =  Rm 0.85 (531 %).

However, I have not factor in the appreciating USD:MYR ratio and other local and overseas export as well as the drop in crude oil and metals prices worldwide.


BRIGHT (9938) currently trying to break the strong resistant at 0.515 candle sticks are moving on the up trend bollinger band witdth (red circle). Meanwhile, MACD is showing up trend sign. It is capable to continue climbing the mountain slope?

BRIGHT (9938) 近来已攻破一道很强的防线在0.515。它的价位一直都在努力的往上爬(红色圈里)。MACD出现了上涨的信息。它又是否还有能力往上继续爬呢?

Bon Voyage! Bright

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Thursday 23 July 2015

E&O: The giant have awaken.

E&O: A company that needs no introduction in Penang. If you happen to visit Penang try to stay in E&O Hotel you will feel the stylish, quality and excellence building with colonial heritage. Now, I know you are excited about the excellence of E&O hospitality.

Come, let us deep deeper into this giant.

This giant have awaken under Dato' Thiam. as he is planning more share buy back.

If you like ewein, you should like E&O more, cos they are both under the same industry - yes, you are right property developer in Penang.

Now, lets us see the hard facts for E&O.

E&O biodata:

1) EPS = 16 sen,
2) PE = 20, as it is a good developer.

So, Fair value is = 0.16 x 20 = RM 3.2.
Current price = Rm 1.85.
So margin of profit = RM 1.35 (73%)

For the warrant,
current price = RM 0.32,
the fair price = RM 3.2 - RM 2.6 = RM 0.60,
MOP = 0.28/0.32 (87.5%).

Penang will be a state that mirrored Hong Kong soon, so the land in the island is going to be depleted soon. If you like Ecoworld, E&O will be a better choice as it is in the island, while Ecoworld land is in the mainland. Try asking the Penangist where they prefer to stay, island or mainland.

However, I have not factored in the potential of 12 Billion  reclamiation work on STP2 and other property project in greater KL.

If this and other landbank revaluation will to be added up the PE can go to maybe 40 or even 50 (current PE of Ewein).

As the warrant will only expire in 2019, it will be a good proxy for Penang to reach vision 2020, a develop nation that mimic Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore with the current exemplary management by the local government.
E&O recently broke 1.80 resistant but MACD is waiting for volume to confirm a strong bullish sign. This frenzy bull will reach E&O soon! Let's wait and see.


Bon Voyage E&O to uncharted water.

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Black Berry(附加华语翻译)

23 July 2015, The Edge was published



Current support level for Black Berry (BB) was $7.65 while the resistant was $8.01. Is there any big foot collecting at this level? You may jump to follow to collect it?

Black Berry (BB) 目前的支撑价为$7.65 但阻力价为$8.01. 当中是否有大脚在收票呢?您也一同跳进去一起捞票?

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Wednesday 22 July 2015

Speculative play: Teo Seng (加入了华语翻译)



TEOSENG already recovered from the lost land? Is it true? On 13/7/15 it is able to break the first resistant at 1.44. However, it failed to break the second resistant at 1.63 and retracement was formed due to profit taking for hari raya? After raya mood was gone, TEOSENG go up with its own effort and continue its journey to break the last resistant at 1.69. Hopefully, TEOSENG is doing well and hit above 1.76 and it should form a new bull run. Not trust? Let's see how it doing.

TEOSENG已经收复失地了吗?13/7/15那天已经捣破了第一个阻力价RM1.44但并未冲破第二到阻墙价RM1.63。由于raya假期的关系,人人都套利去庆祝了。raya气氛已过,TEOSENG又再次卷土从来继续它的旅程。最后的关卡会在RM1.69。希望TEOSENG能做得更好直奔RM1.76以及引来一只雄牛。不相信?敬请期待。

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Tuesday 21 July 2015

如何分辨“投资”跟“投机”??



大家好,这篇是要跟大家分享如何分辨“投资”跟“投机”。其实对于新手来说你们是否都曾经听某某人说过呢?还是觉得很混乱?


我们先来谈谈何谓“投资”?

投资在财务(股市里),投资者必须要优先考虑的3点:
  1. 投资的目的
  2.  投资所需要的本金(capital
  3.  投资潜在的风险


在股市里买卖股票的人很多,各有各的目的。当然大部分的人都想赚钱,这是无法被否定的。当中也有一些买了股票是为了公司每年所分发的股息(dividend) 有些则要得 到公司的实权而大量购买公司的股票从而控制公司。这就是所谓“投资的目的”。

投资者所投入的本金多少因人而翼,大有大买,小有小买。如果没有本金如何谈投资?新手建议从5千块钱开始投资。(在将来的时间我会写一篇关于投资的技巧,里边会讲到如何充分利用本金来投资。)

投资者在还没出手下单之前需要很认真的考虑到潜在的风险。比方说,用来投资的本金是否能亏或者就算亏了也不会在生活上带来不方便。还是本金根本就是“救命钱”?投资跟谈恋爱没两样都是需要经得起时间的考验。


再来谈谈何谓“投机”?

在股市投机其实跟赌博都是同样的性质。人人兴致勃勃的带了一大笔钱进赌场准备大杀四方,输完就是那么一笔钱。(赌场是不允许没钱赌博的,都是“买定离手”)但在股市里是被允许“先买后付”的。博一博,股市投机跟赌博靠的都是“运气”二字。


在将来的时间里会谈到关于“技术性”的投资与投机。

Short term punt: Ibhd.


IBHD is a good developer in i-city with cheap land acquisition cost, the potential is there but the number of script is massive more than 1 billion. So, i would grade it a short term punt.

IBHD yesterday created a new resistant which the price 0.61 was hit 100 days moving average line. MACD creating a up trend bar. If today 22/7/2015 it can sustain above 0.610, it might bullish counter?? Let's see what will happen later.


Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.

Speculative Play: Jiankun the turnkey contractor "tukang kontrak"

If you were to asked me to blog about Jiankun, i will say that this is a rubbish company at first glance.

However, after looking over it again. It has transform itself from a high gearing company to current state, a low gearing company and the plus point is that his director Donald Lim is buying heavily and periodicly (>10%) making him an interested party.

There must be something that he knows that we are not sure of, so lets see the hard facts and see what is the company's potential.

Number of share: 152 million
NTA: 30 sen.

Not inspiring right.

But, if we put a miniscule profit of say only 2 million per month, let us see will there be some change.

Yearly profit: 24 million
EPS = 24/152 = 0.16 sen.
PE = 10.
So, fair value is only = 0.16 x 10 = 16 sen. Not inspiring again.

However, if we give a PE = 40 for a small company that is consider "politically connected. " You can google up and check who is Donald Lim in malaysian politics. It might be a "turnkey contractor" for a certain project in the future.

So, the fair value = 0.16 x 40 = 64 sen. A little bit inspiring.

Margin of profit is neraly 100%. I will say, this is only suitable as a speculative play unless the company turn its earning up other than just clearing their debt will. Furthermore, Jiankun warrant is worth at least 32 sen, a margin of profit of 200%. Better bet right?

Furthermore, if we were to look from another perspectives the "speculator mentality." This company have low script, thightly held and most importantly related to Dr. Chen Lip Kong groupa of company and it is previously known as nagamas. The founder of karambunai, petaling tin and nagamas is an astute investor with a 30 years experience in malysia's construction and property and is well connected to the current government.

Karambunai, petaling tin and nagamas might be cheap but they are ideal for "speculative play. " Syndycate love this company, cheap, quiet and forgotten company wherby all flies had deserted jiankun for greener pasture.


According the bollinger band, the bandwidth and the RSI showing uptrend signal. Tomorrow it might go further? Jiankun able to hit above 0.400? Let's see the show by tomorrow.

Bon Voyage Jiankun.

Disclaimer: This is a personal weblog, reflecting my personal views and not the views of anyone or any organization, which I may be affiliated to. All information provided here, including recommendations (if any), should be treated for informational purposes only. The author should not be held liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein.


Monday 20 July 2015

Rotational Play: AHB: "Kecil kecil cili padi"

Furniture is hot now, but what is even hotter is a company that people overlook like AHB.

AHB is a company that need no further introduction for the name "awright" tell it all.

We know it is hot, it is valuable and most importantly it is cheap.

I won't waste our time on this and that, you can google for all the information but can you see the hard facts of this company: what is it really value and what it is really worth.

Let us see AHB's worth six months ago and now.

Six months ago,
a) earning = 0.69 sen.
b) PE of the furniture sector = 20.
So, fair value is 0.69 x 20 = 14 sen.

Currently,
a) earning = 0.69 sen
b) PE of the furniture sector = 40.
So, fair value is 0.69 x 40 = 28 sen.

Looks very unintersting.

But, stock is investing for the future and those who can predict the future will win.

Let us see the rosy picture first
a) Foreign exchange per USD improve from RM 3 to RM 3.8 (say a 15% improvement).
b) Wood price increase for the past 3 months (we assume an upward reversal of 10%).
c) AHB getting out of PN status (we assume a concurrent growth in earning of 25% from better borrowing terms and sales).

IF I were to all that into account and project it 3 months ahead.
a) earning = 0.69 sen x 1.15 x 1.1 x 1.25 =  1.09 sen.
b) PE we maintain at 40.
So, fair value is 1.09 x 40 = 43.6 sen.

However, we want to be prudent, so we reduce the PE to 30 to prepare for any unforseen circumstances.

So, the final fair value of AHB is 1.09 x 30 = 32.7 sen. As, i love hard facts worth of warrant is only 12.7 sen.

Conclusion: current price of mother is around 20 sen, so we have a margin of profit of 12.7 sen or  63.5%. I would rate it a 6/10 score for a margin of profit of 63.5% in 3 months time. So, there are still plenty of room of growth for the mother but not for the warrant with a miniscule margin of 4.7 sen.

We might be right or wrong but for long term taking a caluclated guess will always be wiser. Be my guess and make your own prediction of AHB in 3 months time, you might be even more accurate than my back of envelope caluclation.

I have not add up the synergystic effect of MedaInc and ecofirst for AHB. They share the same shareholder that are able to turnaround company in dire state to wonderful company see MedaInc and ecofirst price few years back and now and you will know that i am talking with substances. Thumbs up to the good management.

TA chart:

From the above chart, we can see the MACD and RSI is showing uptrend signal. In terms of volume made by yesterday, is it possible it will continue up? You get my answer, I say it would be one day show. Start the following day it might correction back to 0.185 level than only will rebound (it depends on the market condition). If market sentiment is bad, no matter how good FA the stocks are it also will going down. Agree with me? Let's see what will happen later.


Good luck and Bon Voyage AHB.

Disclaimer:The information in this blog and any attachment(s) hereto is intended solely for the use of the intended recipient to whom it is addressed and others authorized to receive it. It may contain confidential and/or legally privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient or have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by responding to this blog and then ignore it from your system. If you are not the intended recipient, any use of, reliance on, reference to, disclosure of, alteration to or copying and/or distribution of the information contained in this blog, for any purpose is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. I, myself shall not be liable for any loss and/or damage caused by viruses transmitted by this blog or its attachments nor for the proper and complete transmission of the information contained in this communication nor for any delay in its receipt. This contains in this blog just for study purposes.

Stock Rumor for week 20th July 2015 - Bintai

Selamat Hari Raya to all Muslim and happy holidays for non-muslim friends who did read my blog recently.
I realized that if only theory will made those readers feel sleepy and stop to follow my next blog. So, start from today I will share some stock rumor with you.

Today BINTAI (stock code: 6998) up 0.055 closed at 0.370 but I tell you start from tomorrow it may go down to at least 0.340. Do you believe it or not? If really happen then  I explain why. It is no point for me to do so much explanation if it not true. I dislike taking your precious time for something that will probably happen only.

However, for long term, bintai can approach Rm 1. I don't have any crystal ball. But, let me do a calulated guess.

Calulation wise:
Bintai earning is 7 sen this Q. Anualized is 28s. If PE is 10 (peer group comparison) then it is worth rm 2.80. But, let us give some discount to it, is 50% okay. Now, Bintai should worth rm 1.40.

So, Bintai warrant should worth rm 1.20 as the conversion price is 20 sen.

Say, i am a kiasu investor. How much i am to loose and how much i am to win. Say, i buy 35 sen as above, i am to loose 35 sen but my earning is rm 1. A factor of 3:1 at 50% discount to fair value. Is this worth to punt, be my guess. Time will tell. I might be wrong but at least i am taking a calulated guess and i know even if i am wrong, i am wrong knowing that i have more chance to be right than wrong.

I have not added in the potential of singapore MRT contract and singapore-kl high speed train. Good luck! Bon Voyage Bintai!






Disclaimer:The information in this blog and any attachment(s) hereto is intended solely for the use of the intended recipient to whom it is addressed and others authorized to receive it. It may contain confidential and/or legally privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient or have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by responding to this blog and then ignore it from your system. If you are not the intended recipient, any use of, reliance on, reference to, disclosure of, alteration to or copying and/or distribution of the information contained in this blog, for any purpose is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. I, myself shall not be liable for any loss and/or damage caused by viruses transmitted by this blog or its attachments nor for the proper and complete transmission of the information contained in this communication nor for any delay in its receipt. This contains in this blog just for study purposes.

Sunday 19 July 2015

Godzila: Learning to lose before you start winning

In the law of nature, every thing have their rules. In this war, you must be very clear of your objectives and understand the existing rules and regulations and the 'weapons' (existing finacial tools) avaialble that you can use to win the battle.

Is it very weird why I said that human must learn how to lose first before starting to win, rather than to teach you directly the way to win? Human have to learn how to fall before they can walk very well. Human can not avoid "injury" during the learning process. The important fact is that human must have a calm mind and try to walk again before learning how to run.

Please try to relate the  'walking theory' with bursa war. You may put some imagination on how this process is going on. If today a soilder's arm (newbie) sprained (eg.lost money) and he is not calm enough, what will he do? Quit (retired from bursa)?

Different people has different experiences that you can not buy from them with money. It is accumulated in the human's spirit, timing and fear. Human all the time is living under the 'fear' acronym and the 'fear' will make you loose focus. The 'fear' will make you do the wrong decision and most importantly make it difficult for you to sleep at night Only the  'calm' one can really think rationally and  help human to fight the 'fear' to win battle.

Your opinions are precious and my creed is to help you rich.

It was very impressive for me that after I created this blog for about an hour,  I already acheived a record of more than 800 readers. I am very thankful to one of my very best friend who supplement me with the idea of setting up a blog, so that I could share what I have learned so far from my experience as a warrior in the dangerous stock market of Malaysia that a lot of people parish, we called it Bursa.

For me to be of better service to you, anyone that is reading my blog, you can select the language of your choice by pressing on the translate button on the upmost right of the blog and select the language that you prefer.  

Your feedback are high appreciated.

Thanks.

History lesson for human

In fact, humans forget easily and they don't learn. That's why tragedy seems to repeat. Currently, China and Hong Kong market are the very good evidence to support my claim. Human should learn  from history and make it our teacher.

In 1997, economy crisis in Malaysia happend due to human 'greed'. That time I was still very young, I still remember a Hong Kong drama entitle 'Dai Shi Doi'. The drama describe how a Hong Kong citizen move from heaven to hell and then from hell back to heaven.

But in reality, is it possible? Should we human learn from the history? History is important to us as human? Just a small group of human realized it and is able to learn and profit from it.

By now, we need proper investment concept and philosophy in our life.

Thank you.

Saturday 18 July 2015

Introduction to Bursa War

I am one of the warrior in the  bursa stock market. In my blog, I will share with you (my reader) about my experiences of being in "war" with bursa. Why the  term 'war' was chosen? However, Stock market is not similar to a 'real war'? The proof why I said so?

During the 1997 Asian Economy Crisis, a lot of victims was 'killed' by the crisis and they votch not to touch the stock anymore or in other word they "retire." I want you to be the survivor in this brutal war.

Market index keep creating new high, a lot of people are very happy with their winning trade. Everyday everyone is making 'easy money' without any effort. 'Easy money' is what people say "easy come easy go." The 'happy time' will poison the human mind. Human never sense the 'dangerous storm' is coming very soon like in Noah's ark.